Indian Domestic Car Sales: Retail v/s Wholesale Numbers


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We have been regularly seeing the whole sale numbers /factory dispatches being reported and circulated in internet and gauge the oem performance. Wehave yet another yardstick which is closer to the ground realities ie the FADA sales. Now there are a few oems who argue that FADA does not have 100% dealer representation and there are a few dealers who are not disclosing the numbers to the FADA. However that said, this is still the most accurate data point for the retail sales of the vehicles.

I would like to capture the month on month trend for the Retail Vs Wholesale sales of cars in this thread.

Oct 2020 sales.
Oct2020-FADAvsWholesale.jpg



November 2020 sales
Nov2020-FADAvsWholesale.jpg


Note: I have combined the Sales data for VW India, Skoda india and Skoda VW india into one since i am not sure which entity sells what. Also the running data may not be accurate since i have begun this from Oct 2020 onwards. I am working back from April 2020 but will take some time before i publish the entire data. So the running data is likely to change.

Gurus, kindly let me know any suggestions to improve this data.
 
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Ford had excess inventory of 2411at the end of Oct 20. Add to it, dispatched 3991 vehicles during Nov 20. During Nov they sold 5856 vehicles. This means approximately 500 vehicles are still pending in the inventory. Then howcome you are showing the inventory in 'minus figures' at the end of the Nov 20?
 
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Ford had excess inventory of 2411at the end of Oct 20. Add to it, dispatched 3991 vehicles during Nov 20. During Nov they sold 5856 vehicles. This means approximately 500 vehicles are still pending in the inventory. Then howcome you are showing the inventory in 'minus figures' at the end of the Nov 20?
Well, What i have done is taken monthly dispatches for Dealer Vs Fada numbers. So bascially what is happening is in some months, the retail sales are higher than factory dispatches and you get Negative numbers. Like you see in ford Nov 2020 sales.
If you look at the Last 2 columns names Running Data, that is where i have summed up the excess inventory for dealers for Months of Oct and Nov.
Ford:
Oct Excess = +2421
Nov Excess = -1865

Running balance after oct and Nov its +556 vehicles lying with Dealers.

now for Skoda VW its -186 which may imply that they have backlog of sorts but again that is not correct as there can be some left over stock from previous months which i have not calculated. However, we can say that Jack Hollis have rightly said that they are already full with demand.
 
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January 2021 numbers
jan21.png

Nissan Datsun leads the pack with 27.5 % excess inventory, and jeep reducing the inventory by 11.4% but the numbers are small.
Suzuki, Skoda VW, Mahindra, Hyundai, MG having less than 10% excess inventory,
Tata, Renault,Ford under 20%
Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Kia between 20-30% excess inventory.
 
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Adding the Cumulative inventory from the FADA data available from July 2020
Below is the chart whichshows how the inventory accumulation on monthly basis

ExcessInventory-Jan21.png


Cumulative Inventory Position as of Jan 2021 for All OEMs
CumInv-Jan21.png


Tabulated Data of Cumulative inventory

CumInvJan21.png
 

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